In recent weeks, two major developments have shaped the trade landscape: a US court ruling questioning the legality of ...

We are (reluctantly) aligning with the market and consensus call for a hold at the 19 th June meeting. In our view, Norges ...

Iran is a meaningful oil producer, pumping 3.3m b/d of crude oil and exporting in the neighbourhood of 1.7m b/d. In a scenario where we see further escalation, it’s not too difficult to envisage a ...

The large increases from OPEC+ will push the global oil market into a large surplus from the fourth quarter of this year ...

For the eurozone, the bigger independent upside pressure for the 10yr Bund yield is through 2026 as the ECB finishes with ...

Tariff front running led to a drop in GDP in the first quarter, but a subsequent plunge in imports means growth of near 4% ...

Inflated Irish GDP figures mask eurozone weakness. Despite eurozone inflation falling below 2%, the ECB is nearing the end of ...

Yesterday's softer US May CPI data led to the usual pattern of stronger Treasuries and a weaker dollar. However, this might ...

Romanian inflation ticked up to 5.5% in May (April: 4.9%), fuelled by some food and services items. We have recently lifted ...

Asia's boost from export front-loading is likely to fade, while the direct drag from tariffs will weigh on exports across the region. Inflation is expected to stay within central bank targets, which ...

UK GDP fell faster than expected in April, but these figures have been volatile lately owing to tariff frontloading, coupled with some possible issues with seasonal adjustment. After a strong first ...

China’s data softened but remained resilient amid April’s tariff turmoil The sharp escalation of tariffs in April led to a wave of forecast downgrades in China, as markets weighed the impact on growth ...